By the mid-2030s sea levels will have risen so much that the Moons regular, predictable cycles will … [+] be the catalyst for rapidly increasing high-tide floods on almost all U.S. mainland coastlines, Hawaii and Guam.
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By the mid-2030s sea levels will have risen so much that the Moons regular, predictable cycles will be the catalyst for rapidly increasing high-tide floods on almost all U.S. mainland coastlines, Hawaii and Guam.
Thats the stark conclusion of research published in Nature Climate Change from NASAs Sea Level Change Science Team from the University of Hawaii.
It states that the increase would be mostly along the continental Pacific, Pacific Island and Gulf of Mexico coastlines.
By the mid-2030s high-tide floods will switch from being a regional problem to a major national issue, it concludes, though with the caveat that fluctuations in local sea levels may affect the exact timing on the onslaught.
How does the Moons cycle affect flooding?
The Moons gravitational pull causes the low and high tides each day here on Earth because the oceans bulge on the moon-side.
However, the Moon has an 18.6-year cycle during which its wobbling position suppresses high tides for one half and amplifies them for the other half. Its doing the former right now, but climate change-induced sea levels havent risen enough for their to be a sharp increase in high-tide floods just yetalso called nuisance floods or sunny day floods. Thats going to change.
People walk through a flooded street that was caused by the combination of the lunar orbit which … [+] caused seasonal high tides and what many believe is the rising sea levels due to climate change on September 30, 2015 in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. South Florida is projected to continue to feel the effects of climate change and many of the cities have begun programs such as installing pumps or building up sea walls to try and combat the rising oceans. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
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Why flooding will worsen in the mid-2030s
When we get to a similar point in the Moons cycle in the mid-2030s, climate change will have worsened and sea levels will have risen. Thats because rising sea levels will suddenly be in alignment with the lunar cycle and cause a decade of dramatic increases in flood numbers.
Its pretty bad already in many cities on the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts, says the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which reported over 600 high-tide floods in 2019.
The coming cluster problem of high-tide floods
In the mid-2030s there will be high tides that exceed known flooding thresholds around the country more oftenand for weeks on end.
This first study to take into account all known oceanic and astronomical causes for floods predict that the floods will sometimes occur in seasonal clusters lasting a month or longer.
Understanding that all your events are clustered in a particular month, or you might have more severe flooding in the second half of a year than the firstthats useful information, said Ben Hamlington of NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory, co-author of the paper and the leader of NASAs Sea Level Change Team.
The researchers studied 89 tide gauge locations in every coastal U.S. state and territory but Alaska, projecting results to 2080.
MIAMI BEACH, FL – SEPTEMBER 29: Yana Kibyakova walks through a flooded street that was caused by the … [+] combination of the lunar orbit which caused seasonal high tides and what many believe is the rising sea levels due to climate change on September 29, 2015 in Miami Beach, Florida. The City of Miami Beach is in the middle of a five-year, $400 million storm water pump program and other projects that city officials hope will keep the ocean waters from inundating the city as the oceans rise even more in the future. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
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Why we should be worried about high-tide floods
After all, were not talking here about hurricane storm surges and physical damage of property and infrastructure. Its the accumulated effect over time of things like road and business closures that could be devastating.
If it floods 10 or 15 times a month, a business cant keep operating with its parking lot under water, said Phil Thompson, an assistant professor at the University of Hawaii and the lead author of the study. People lose their jobs because they cant get to work [and] seeping cesspools become a public health issue.
How fast are sea levels rising?
Meltwater from glaciers and ice sheets as well as the thermal expansion of seawater as it warms has caused global mean sea level to rise about 89 inches/2124 centimeters since 1880, with about a third of that coming in just the last 25 years, according to NOAA.
The combination of the Moons gravitational pull, rising sea levels and climate change will continue to exacerbate coastal flooding on our coastlines and across the world, said Bill Nelson, NASA Administrator. NASAs Sea Level Change Team is providing crucial information so that we can plan, protect and prevent damage to the environmentand peoples livelihoods affected by flooding.
Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.
Rising sea levels caused by climate change, aligned and amplified by the lunar cycle, will cause rapidly increasing high-tide floods in the mid-2030.s
